Weekly Moves: AZ is live
Plus: NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 hurricane season, three CA wildfire reform bills face a May 29 deadline vote
In case you missed it, we launched the P&C Commercial Tracker, a weekly carrier-level tracker of the US commercial insurance market. Two layers, sourced and timestamped: the Carrier Directory baseline and the Weekly Moves tracker.
Arizona is now live. We mapped the state the same way we mapped Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, and Illinois: admitted carriers, the ADIFI filing portal, E&S eligible insurers, Lloyd's syndicates, MGAs and programs, and the regulatory actors who move the market. Arizona has no state-run last resort insurer. The key exposures are wildfire/WUI, monsoon, and the Phoenix metro data center build-out. Six states, six complete carrier universes, one tracker.
What It Is
A carrier-level tracker of the commercial property and E&S property markets in Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, Illinois, and Arizona. 1,480 carriers identified so far (170 FL + 198 CA + 288 TX + 282 NY/NJ + 270 IL + 272 AZ), covering admitted, E&S, Lloyd's, MGA/Program, parametric, Citizens, the California FAIR Plan, TWIA, NYPIUA, the NJ FAIR Plan, and the Illinois FAIR Plan. Every carrier researched against FL OIR, CA CDI, TDI, NYDFS, NJ DOBI, ELANY, IDOI, SLAI, and ADIFI filings, SLTX eligible insurer lists, AM Best, Demotech, S&P, FHCF and CA FAIR Plan participant lists, the Surplus Line Association of California, SEC filings, and trade press. Every entry cites 2–5 independent sources. The directory grows weekly as new entrants are identified and gaps are corrected.
There are Two Layers:
The Carrier Directory is the baseline: who writes commercial property in your state, what they target, whether they are expanding, stable, entering, or tightening. Filter by state, market type, account size, or appetite.
The Weekly Moves tracker captures what changed this week: rate filings, appetite shifts, regulatory actions, market entries, and earnings signals. Every move is sourced and timestamped.
What’s most important for us right now is to get your input on how we can make this useful to you. Reply to this email or ping me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com.
What the Data Says
Arizona commercial property right now:
BLM and DFFM fire restrictions are active across Maricopa, Mohave, Yavapai, and La Paz counties. The 2026 fire season is running above the national 10-year average for acres burned.
Phoenix metro hosts roughly 707MW of data center IT capacity with new projects advancing in Mesa, Goodyear, and Chandler. Sustained builders risk and data center property demand.
WUI commercial property is a two-speed market: low-hazard urban rates stabilizing while high-hazard WUI stays elevated with mitigation requirements.
June 1 reinsurance renewals are softening roughly 10% risk-adjusted, easing catastrophe costs for AZ-exposed carriers heading into monsoon and wildfire season.
Florida commercial property right now:
NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with a 55% chance of below-normal activity. Emerging El Niño expected to suppress storm formation.
AM Best confirmed FL-domiciled property carriers posted nearly $1B in underwriting gains versus a $132M loss two years earlier. Defense costs down 80% from the 2022 peak.
Cat bond issuance for H1 2026 is projected at $16.3B with May on track as a record month. FL-exposed deals continue pricing at or below guidance.
Three new property carriers entered FL this spring, bringing the total to 20 since the 2023 reforms and more than $850M of new capital.
California commercial property right now:
SB 877, SB 878, and SB 1301 all cleared Senate Appropriations and must pass the Senate floor by May 29. Passage or failure is the defining CA market signal this week.
CDI filed an Accusation against State Farm citing 398 violations across 220 sampled claims and is seeking license suspension up to one year plus record penalties.
CEA is marketing a $300M Sutter Re 2026-1 earthquake cat bond to renew part of a maturing tranche. CEA carries $2.875B in outstanding cat bond coverage.
The Sandy Fire in Simi Valley reached 71% containment after burning 2,183 acres. Limited structural loss but reinforces early-season wildfire exposure.
Texas commercial property right now:
TWIA’s $2.28B reinsurance tower is fully committed at the lowest price in years. Alamo Re 2026-1 priced at $750M with all tranches at low-end guidance.
TDI data call for 2025 catastrophe-area commercial property premium was due May 22. Used to calculate TWIA member assessment shares.
The April 24-29 severe storm sequence in North/Central TX produced 287 hail/wind/tornado reports including an EF3, the most damaging NWS Fort Worth event in recent record.
Dallas Fed reports TX property insurance premium growth slowed to 4.3% in 2025 from 18.7% in 2024.
New York/New Jersey commercial property right now:
Travelers priced Long Point Re IV at $750M, its largest cat bond ever, at a 3.5% spread below guidance. Nationwide priced Aquila Re I at $350M, also at low-end guidance.
Three new NJ surplus lines entrants approved: Sabal Specialty, AXA XL E&S, and Florida Insurance and Reinsurance Company.
Cotality ranks the NY metro as the #1 US hurricane exposure zone: 3.27M homes at moderate-or-greater wind risk with $1.93T in replacement cost value.
Severe storms and flash flooding hit NYC and NJ on May 20 with 6-inch-per-hour rainfall and 10,000+ power outages.
Illinois commercial property right now:
SB 1486 awaits Senate concurrence before the spring session deadline. Would shift IL from use-and-file to prior-approval for certain property rates.
Illinois led the nation in severe weather with 80 tornado reports through April 19. SBA disaster declaration issued May 18 for the April 17 outbreak.
The IL surplus lines market roughly doubled in a decade to $4.4B with Swiss Re Corporate Solutions E&S property premiums up 96%.
CIAB Q4 2025 survey found commercial property premiums the softest since 2017, but Midwest SCS-exposed risks face tighter terms.
Florida, California, Texas, NY/NJ, Illinois, and Arizona commercial property are live now. More states coming next across commercial property.
We are temporarily sharing full and free access to our tracker so you can check it out.
Want every issue as it ships?
Have feedback or requests? We’d love to hear from you. Please reply to this email, or email me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com and share your thoughts.
Why We Did It
If you place commercial property at a wholesale brokerage, or you sit in product, strategy, or the C-suite at a commercial carrier, you already know the shape of the problem: carriers entering and exiting state markets, rate filings changing appetite overnight, AM Best moving on ratings, reciprocal exchanges spinning up in Florida. Teams stitch it together themselves, across three categories of outside tools: raw filings databases (SERFF, state DOI portals), financial and rating platforms (S&P, AM Best, Demotech), and episodic broker research (Amwins State of the Market, quarterly outlook pieces). Each one answers part of the question. None of them combines the three in a workflow-usable way at the carrier level for commercial property appetite tracking. That’s the gap we’re building against.
If you’re curious, here is our Methodology and Data Dictionary.