Weekly Moves: June 11
Plus: CSU cuts its 2026 hurricane forecast as the first Gulf disturbance appears, New York's prior-approval bill dies with the session, and Illinois hands IDOI rate review authority
In case you missed it, we launched the P&C Commercial Tracker, a weekly carrier-level tracker of the US commercial insurance market. Two layers, sourced and timestamped: the Carrier Directory baseline and the Weekly Moves tracker.
We mapped Arizona, Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, and Illinois the following way: admitted carriers, the ADIFI filing portal, E&S eligible insurers, Lloyd's syndicates, MGAs and programs, and the regulatory actors who move the market. Arizona has no state-run last resort insurer. The key exposures are wildfire/WUI, monsoon, and the Phoenix metro data center build-out. Six states, six complete carrier universes, one tracker.
What It Is
A carrier-level tracker of the commercial property and E&S property markets in Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, Illinois, and Arizona. 1,480 carriers identified so far (170 FL + 198 CA + 288 TX + 282 NY/NJ + 270 IL + 272 AZ), covering admitted, E&S, Lloyd's, MGA/Program, parametric, Citizens, the California FAIR Plan, TWIA, NYPIUA, the NJ FAIR Plan, and the Illinois FAIR Plan. Every carrier researched against FL OIR, CA CDI, TDI, NYDFS, NJ DOBI, ELANY, IDOI, SLAI, and ADIFI filings, SLTX eligible insurer lists, AM Best, Demotech, S&P, FHCF and CA FAIR Plan participant lists, the Surplus Line Association of California, SEC filings, and trade press. Every entry cites 2–5 independent sources. The directory grows weekly as new entrants are identified and gaps are corrected.
There are Two Layers:
The Carrier Directory is the baseline: who writes commercial property in your state, what they target, whether they are expanding, stable, entering, or tightening. Filter by state, market type, account size, or appetite.
The Weekly Moves tracker captures what changed this week: rate filings, appetite shifts, regulatory actions, market entries, and earnings signals. Every move is sourced and timestamped.
What’s most important for us right now is to get your input on how we can make this useful to you. Reply to this email or ping me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com.
What the Data Says
Florida commercial property right now:
CSU lowered its 2026 Atlantic forecast to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors, down from 13/6/2 in April, citing a likely moderate-to-strong El Niño. The NHC is already watching its first Gulf disturbance of the season at 10% development odds.
USAA is returning nearly $1B to Florida members through July, including a $500M auto dividend to roughly 830,000 policyholders, crediting the state’s tort reforms.
Guy Carpenter’s FL renewal report confirms risk-adjusted property cat pricing down 15-20% across many layers at 6/1, with clients securing 12%+ additional capacity and FL domestics posting a 76.8% combined ratio.
Sypher Insurance Exchange became the 21st new property insurer since the 2022 reforms, taking post-reform capital past $850M.
California commercial property right now:
AP projects Jane Kim and Ben Allen advance to the November runoff for Insurance Commissioner. Lara is termed out, and the outcome will shape Prop 103 administration and the Sustainable Insurance Strategy.
SB 877, SB 878, and SB 1301 all cleared the Senate by the May 29 deadline and now sit in the Assembly. The fire-safe coverage mandate (SB 1076) died in committee.
A Red Flag Warning covered the Northern Sacramento Valley and East Bay Hills June 10-11 with gusts to 40 mph and humidity near 9%. Season to date: roughly 1,720 fires and 54,000 acres, no major insured-loss event yet.
CEA priced an upsized $425M Sutter Re 2026-1 earthquake cat bond below guidance, lifting its risk transfer tower to $8.2B.
Texas commercial property right now:
TDI holds its Docket 2865 hearing June 15 on HB 2067 Phase 2, which would require insurers to report the reasons given for commercial cancellations, nonrenewals, and declinations.
TWIA enters the season with a $41.6M surplus, $4.3B in total funding, and a fully bound $2.28B reinsurance tower. Depopulation remains stalled with no carriers registering for Rounds 9 or 10.
Hail hit North and West Texas June 5-6, followed by a June 8 multi-state outbreak that produced 82 hail storms. No insured loss estimates published yet.
Gov. Abbott released data center regulatory recommendations for the 2027 session, including grid self-supply and infrastructure cost requirements, a forward signal for the booming TX data center property segment.
New York/New Jersey commercial property right now:
A11298, the bill that would have shifted NY commercial property to prior-approval rating, was held in committee and died with the session’s end. The structural threat is off the table for this year.
The Hanover priced an upsized $150M Commonwealth Re 2026-1 cat bond, bringing its tower to $450M. Travelers’ $750M Long Point Re IV and Nationwide’s $350M Aquila Re replacements are now live.
Howden Re’s 6/1 report shows risk-adjusted property cat ROL down up to 25% on loss-free programs, with reductions feeding through to NY/NJ primary pricing ahead of 7/1.
ELANY added another carrier to the E&S eligible list June 10, its third panel expansion bulletin since April.
Illinois commercial property right now:
Lawmakers passed SB714 and HB4273, giving IDOI authority to review rates effective July 2027 and shifting IL toward a hybrid prior-approval model. NAMIC warns of fewer options and higher prices.
Tornadoes struck Champaign June 10 amid an Enhanced severe weather risk. IL leads the nation with 119+ preliminary tornado reports this year, 99 above its historical average.
RLI declared a $2.00 special dividend payable June 12, signaling capital strength in its Peoria-based specialty property book.
Chicago digital insurer Honeycomb raised $40M and expanded into Kansas and Missouri, continuing its Midwest commercial property push.
Arizona commercial property right now:
The Papa Fire burned 118 acres east of Flagstaff and Kaibab National Forest entered Stage 1 fire restrictions June 11, stacking on BLM and DFFM orders across northern and central AZ at peak pre-monsoon risk.
Monsoon season officially opens June 15 with the CPC forecasting above-normal precipitation; until it arrives, NIFC projects above-normal wildfire potential statewide.
The data center build-out keeps compounding: 54 facilities with 29 more planned adding 10,655 MW, and Swiss Re projects global data center premiums reaching $24.2B by 2030.
Aon pegs average property rate change at -15% for Q1 with shared/layered accounts down 20%, though wildfire-exposed WUI accounts remain bifurcated and firmer.
Florida, California, Texas, NY/NJ, Illinois, and Arizona commercial property are live now.
We are temporarily sharing full and free access to our tracker so you can check it out.
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Have feedback or requests? We’d love to hear from you. Please reply to this email, or email me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com and share your thoughts.
Why We Did It
If you place commercial property at a wholesale brokerage, or you sit in product, strategy, or the C-suite at a commercial carrier, you already know the shape of the problem: carriers entering and exiting state markets, rate filings changing appetite overnight, AM Best moving on ratings, reciprocal exchanges spinning up in Florida. Teams stitch it together themselves, across three categories of outside tools: raw filings databases (SERFF, state DOI portals), financial and rating platforms (S&P, AM Best, Demotech), and episodic broker research (Amwins State of the Market, quarterly outlook pieces). Each one answers part of the question. None of them combines the three in a workflow-usable way at the carrier level for commercial property appetite tracking. That’s the gap we’re building against.
If you’re curious, here is our Methodology and Data Dictionary.