Weekly Moves: June 18
Plus: DeSantis signs Citizens out of new commercial property, Tropical Storm Arthur opens the Atlantic season, and California floats the first long-term insurer solvency rule in the US
In case you missed it, we launched the P&C Commercial Tracker, a weekly carrier-level tracker of the US commercial insurance market. Two layers, sourced and timestamped: the Carrier Directory baseline and the Weekly Moves tracker.
We mapped Arizona, Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, and Illinois the following way: admitted carriers, the ADIFI filing portal, E&S eligible insurers, Lloyd's syndicates, MGAs and programs, and the regulatory actors who move the market. Arizona has no state-run last resort insurer. The key exposures are wildfire/WUI, monsoon, and the Phoenix metro data center build-out. Six states, six complete carrier universes, one tracker.
What It Is
A carrier-level tracker of the commercial property and E&S property markets in Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, Illinois, and Arizona. 1,480 carriers identified so far (170 FL + 198 CA + 288 TX + 282 NY/NJ + 270 IL + 272 AZ), covering admitted, E&S, Lloyd's, MGA/Program, parametric, Citizens, the California FAIR Plan, TWIA, NYPIUA, the NJ FAIR Plan, and the Illinois FAIR Plan. Every carrier researched against FL OIR, CA CDI, TDI, NYDFS, NJ DOBI, ELANY, IDOI, SLAI, and ADIFI filings, SLTX eligible insurer lists, AM Best, Demotech, S&P, FHCF and CA FAIR Plan participant lists, the Surplus Line Association of California, SEC filings, and trade press. Every entry cites 2–5 independent sources. The directory grows weekly as new entrants are identified and gaps are corrected.
There are Two Layers:
The Carrier Directory is the baseline: who writes commercial property in your state, what they target, whether they are expanding, stable, entering, or tightening. Filter by state, market type, account size, or appetite.
The Weekly Moves tracker captures what changed this week: rate filings, appetite shifts, regulatory actions, market entries, and earnings signals. Every move is sourced and timestamped.
What’s most important for us right now is to get your input on how we can make this useful to you. Reply to this email or ping me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com.
What the Data Says
Florida commercial property right now:
Gov. DeSantis signed SB 1028 on June 16, effective immediately, barring Citizens from writing new commercial residential or commercial nonresidential coverage where private coverage is available. Nonresidential risks turn ineligible on any authorized-insurer offer, and Citizens must stand up admitted and surplus lines commercial clearinghouses by Jan 1 2027.
The law formalizes a surplus lines commercial clearinghouse as a new E&S intake channel for take-out carriers rated A- or better. FSLSO reports surplus lines insurers already covered 147,501 Florida commercial property policies as of May 31.
Fitch says Florida insurers enter hurricane season better capitalized, with stronger reinsurance and lower Citizens exposure, as 6/1 and 7/1 risk-adjusted reinsurance pricing runs down roughly 15-20% across many layers.
The 2026 Atlantic season opened on a below-normal forecast (NOAA 8-14 named storms; CSU trimmed to 11/5 on rising El Nino odds), but Insurance Business notes the post-reform market still faces its first real high-intensity test.
California commercial property right now:
Commissioner Lara released draft text for a first-in-the-nation Long-Term Solvency Planning Regulation, with a July 28 hearing. It would require insurers, including commercial property writers, to file individualized solvency and climate scenario plans stress-tested to 2030, 2040, and 2050.
Mercury set a $150M target for its Luca Re 2026-1 wildfire cat bond on June 17 with price guidance cut a second time, signaling tightening wildfire reinsurance spreads and growing capital-markets appetite for California fire risk.
The California FAIR Plan wrote 98,677 new policies in H1 2026, a 26% drop in average monthly new business versus 2025, cited as early evidence the Sustainable Insurance Strategy is slowing FAIR Plan growth.
Early-season fire is running ahead of the five-year average; the Shore Fire near Calimesa reached about 3,085 acres by June 17, and the commissioner’s race narrowed to Ben Allen and Yvonne Kim, who split sharply on the future of the reforms.
Texas commercial property right now:
Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17 off the Texas coast as the season’s first named storm, dropping more than 8 inches of rain in Brazoria County; the weak, rain-dominant system is unlikely to breach TWIA retention or trigger named-storm cat bonds.
Gov. Abbott issued a June 15 severe storm disaster proclamation covering 101 counties after flooding, hail, and wind, the week’s primary in-window commercial property loss event.
TWIA enters the season on a $2.28B risk-transfer tower (about $1.05B of cat bonds plus $1.23B of traditional reinsurance) priced near a 10% gross rate-on-line, with ceded premium down roughly 43% year over year after HB 3689 halved its PML standard to 1-in-50.
TDI Bulletin B-0004-26 (June 12) opened a mandatory CY2025 disallowed-expenses data call for fire, allied lines, and commercial multi-peril writers, with reports due July 24.
New York/New Jersey commercial property right now:
New York’s session closed with Insurance Law Article 23 file-and-use and flexible-rating provisions, plus NYPIUA’s coverage-unavailability authority, set to sunset June 30 and awaiting a legislative extender, leaving a structural question mark over NY commercial property rating.
NJM priced an upsized $250M Lower Ferry Re 2026-1 cat bond on June 12, its largest to date with all three tranches below guidance; The Hanover’s upsized $150M Commonwealth Re 2026-1 also priced at the low end, both covering the Northeast including NY and NJ.
Guy Carpenter and KBW peg June 1 US property cat reinsurance down 15-20%, with $16.1B of cat bonds issued year to date, abundant capacity that feeds Northeast primary pricing into July 1.
NYDFS Circular Letter No.1 set P&C disaster-planning standards with a June 11 data-survey deadline and July 30 plan questionnaires, a live compliance item for NY commercial property writers.
Illinois commercial property right now:
A June 9-11 Midwest outbreak, including a June 10 derecho with a 400-mile damaging-wind swath and a June 11 tornado outbreak of 20-plus tornadoes near Chicago, caused major commercial losses including a Nutrien Ag Solutions facility collapse in Hoopeston and 400,000-plus outages.
A second round hit June 17 with confirmed tornadoes near Charleston and hail to 2.75 inches, damaging commercial and institutional structures; Illinois continues to lead the nation in tornado reports this year.
Aon attributes the majority of the week’s US insured losses to the Midwest outbreak and flags Chicago’s roughly $1 trillion reconstruction-value hail exposure, while Munich Re signals SCS attachment points may need to rise further.
The convective losses are nudging admitted capacity back and opening room for E&S carriers, even as the broader 2026 commercial property market stays buyer-favorable for well-documented risk.
Arizona commercial property right now:
Two lightning-caused wildfires burned in northern Arizona during the window; the Rock Canyon Fire reached about 3,000 acres at 5% containment near the Utah border with evacuations planned, prompting a BLM Arizona Strip public-land closure June 16, an early-season severity signal for AZ wildfire underwriting.
Monsoon season opened June 15 with the CPC favoring a wetter and hotter season; until storms arrive, a record-dry winter keeps wildfire potential above normal, with an Extreme Heat Warning near 110F issued for Coconino County.
June 12 commentary reaffirmed the three-year moratorium on new data center tax incentives, while Mohave County self-supply rules and a Tucson 20MW threshold tighten permitting, slowing the build pipeline and the insurable values behind the Phoenix-metro data center property line.
The Arizona Legislature adjourned sine die June 13 with no commercial property or surplus lines bill advancing; enacted measures take effect around mid-September.
Florida, California, Texas, NY/NJ, Illinois, and Arizona commercial property are live now.
We are temporarily sharing full and free access to our tracker so you can check it out.
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Have feedback or requests? We’d love to hear from you. Please reply to this email, or email me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com and share your thoughts.
Why We Did It
If you place commercial property at a wholesale brokerage, or you sit in product, strategy, or the C-suite at a commercial carrier, you already know the shape of the problem: carriers entering and exiting state markets, rate filings changing appetite overnight, AM Best moving on ratings, reciprocal exchanges spinning up in Florida. Teams stitch it together themselves, across three categories of outside tools: raw filings databases (SERFF, state DOI portals), financial and rating platforms (S&P, AM Best, Demotech), and episodic broker research (Amwins State of the Market, quarterly outlook pieces). Each one answers part of the question. None of them combines the three in a workflow-usable way at the carrier level for commercial property appetite tracking. That’s the gap we’re building against.
If you’re curious, here is our Methodology and Data Dictionary.