Weekly Moves: June 4
Property cat reinsurance fell 15-25% at June 1 renewals, three CA insurance reform bills cleared the Senate floor
In case you missed it, we launched the P&C Commercial Tracker, a weekly carrier-level tracker of the US commercial insurance market. Two layers, sourced and timestamped: the Carrier Directory baseline and the Weekly Moves tracker.
We mapped Arizona, Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, and Illinois the following way: admitted carriers, the ADIFI filing portal, E&S eligible insurers, Lloyd's syndicates, MGAs and programs, and the regulatory actors who move the market. Arizona has no state-run last resort insurer. The key exposures are wildfire/WUI, monsoon, and the Phoenix metro data center build-out. Six states, six complete carrier universes, one tracker.
What It Is
A carrier-level tracker of the commercial property and E&S property markets in Florida, California, Texas, New York/New Jersey, Illinois, and Arizona. 1,480 carriers identified so far (170 FL + 198 CA + 288 TX + 282 NY/NJ + 270 IL + 272 AZ), covering admitted, E&S, Lloyd's, MGA/Program, parametric, Citizens, the California FAIR Plan, TWIA, NYPIUA, the NJ FAIR Plan, and the Illinois FAIR Plan. Every carrier researched against FL OIR, CA CDI, TDI, NYDFS, NJ DOBI, ELANY, IDOI, SLAI, and ADIFI filings, SLTX eligible insurer lists, AM Best, Demotech, S&P, FHCF and CA FAIR Plan participant lists, the Surplus Line Association of California, SEC filings, and trade press. Every entry cites 2–5 independent sources. The directory grows weekly as new entrants are identified and gaps are corrected.
There are Two Layers:
The Carrier Directory is the baseline: who writes commercial property in your state, what they target, whether they are expanding, stable, entering, or tightening. Filter by state, market type, account size, or appetite.
The Weekly Moves tracker captures what changed this week: rate filings, appetite shifts, regulatory actions, market entries, and earnings signals. Every move is sourced and timestamped.
What’s most important for us right now is to get your input on how we can make this useful to you. Reply to this email or ping me at molly.brown@intelligencecouncil.com.
What the Data Says
Arizona commercial property right now:
NIFC’s June outlook flags above-normal fire potential expanding across the Southwest including AZ. NWS issued Red Flag Warnings for northwest AZ on June 3 amid critical fire weather and dry-lightning ignition risk.
June 1 reinsurance renewals came in steeper than expected. Howden Re shows loss-free property cat down up to 25% (fastest 2026 softening) and Guy Carpenter has 15-20% across-layer reductions, easing catastrophe costs for AZ-exposed carriers ahead of monsoon and wildfire season.
The Hanover priced an upsized $150M Commonwealth Re 2026-1 cat bond on June 3, adding wildfire to a Hanover cat bond for the first time. ILS appetite extending to wildfire-exposed national writers.
AM Best affirmed Fairfax Financial Holdings and Fairfax (US) Inc. ratings on June 3, supporting AZ capacity from Allied World, Crum & Forster, Odyssey Re, and Brit.
Florida commercial property right now:
Citizens 2026 rate order took effect June 1: personal lines cut an average 8.7% (first cut since 2015, roughly 330K policyholders affected), with a separate commercial +10.4% filing pending for late 2026.
FL State Board of Administration signaling reduction in property cat ILS allocations while continuing to diversify overall ILS exposure. Meaningful FL-affiliated capital pool repositioning.
2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially opened June 1 with no preseason cyclones, the third consecutive quiet start. NOAA below-normal outlook holding; FL is in nearly 100% drought coverage.
Guy Carpenter has FL property cat down 15-20% across many layers at 6/1 while Howden Re shows loss-free up to 25%. FL domestics ran a 76.8% combined ratio in 2025; $3.2B+ in FL-focused cat bonds priced YTD with three first-time sponsors.
California commercial property right now:
Trio of CA insurance reform bills cleared the Senate floor by the May 29 deadline. SB 877 (loss-estimate transparency) passed May 20; SB 878 (20% prompt-pay penalties) and SB 1301 (six-month nonrenewal notice + cure rights) both passed May 26. All now move to Assembly.
State Farm secured $1.5B from Merna Re Enterprise II 2026-1 in two $750M tranches (multi-year annual aggregate), lifting it to top cat bond sponsor at $4.5B outstanding. Expands CA-exposed capacity.
CEA priced an upsized $425M Sutter Re 2026-1 cat bond on June 3 (raised twice from a $300M target). Four-year indemnity annual aggregate cover replacing the maturing $425M Sutter Re 2023-1.
CDI’s Prop 103 overhaul rulemaking sits at OAL with a decision window in early June. June 2 Commissioner primary: Jane Kim and Sen Ben Allen leading; Lara term-limited.
Texas commercial property right now:
TWIA’s 2026 reinsurance program went in force June 1 with $4.3B of total funding meeting the statutory 1-in-50 PML. Tower comprises $2B statutory funding plus $2.28B in reinsurance and cat bonds bound May 20-21.
Howden Re’s 6/1 renewal report shows property cat down up to 25% on loss-free programs and Guy Carpenter has 15-20% across layers, benefiting TX-exposed writers heading into hurricane season.
The May 29 to June 1 SCS sequence pressured loss costs: Panhandle hail on May 29, multi-state hail counts of 62 and 40 storms on May 30-31, then a 12-state widespread SCS event June 1.
2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially opened June 1 with NOAA forecasting below-normal activity: 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 majors, with emerging El Niño expected to suppress activity.
New York/New Jersey commercial property right now:
Travelers Long Point Re IV 2022-1 ($575M Northeast multi-peril) matured at the start of June and was replaced by Long Point Re IV 2026-1 at $750M with a 3.5% spread, Travelers’ largest cat bond ever.
Nationwide Aquila Re I 2023-1 ($300M) matured June 2026 and was replaced by upsized Aquila Re I 2026-1 ($350M, priced at low end of reduced guidance). Total in-force cat bond limit moves $525M to $575M.
Howden Re’s 6/1 renewal confirms property cat ROL declines accelerated outside Florida with top layers attracting the most competitive pricing, easing reinsurance costs for NY/NJ Northeast primary writers.
2026 Atlantic season opened June 1 with NOAA below-normal outlook. NY metro remains the #1 US hurricane exposure zone per Cotality with $1.93T+ RCV at moderate-or-greater wind risk.
Illinois commercial property right now:
Illinois leads the nation in 2026 severe weather with 121 confirmed tornado reports through May 31 versus runner-up Mississippi at 82. NWS Chicago notes June is historically the peak month for significant severe weather in northern IL.
IIA, APCIA, and NAMIC issued a joint statement opposing HB 4273 and SB 714, warning the rate-control bills will not address rising repair costs, severe weather losses, or legal-system abuse. Signals incumbent carriers turning cautious on IL growth.
The IL surplus lines market roughly doubled in a decade to $4.4B with Swiss Re Corporate Solutions E&S property premiums up 96%, reflecting structural shift of risk into E&S.
6/1 reinsurance softening (15-25% risk-adjusted per Howden Re and Guy Carpenter) eases catastrophe costs for Midwest-exposed IL primary writers at upcoming mid-year renewals, though the 6/1 wave itself was FL-heavy..
Florida, California, Texas, NY/NJ, Illinois, and Arizona commercial property are live now.
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Why We Did It
If you place commercial property at a wholesale brokerage, or you sit in product, strategy, or the C-suite at a commercial carrier, you already know the shape of the problem: carriers entering and exiting state markets, rate filings changing appetite overnight, AM Best moving on ratings, reciprocal exchanges spinning up in Florida. Teams stitch it together themselves, across three categories of outside tools: raw filings databases (SERFF, state DOI portals), financial and rating platforms (S&P, AM Best, Demotech), and episodic broker research (Amwins State of the Market, quarterly outlook pieces). Each one answers part of the question. None of them combines the three in a workflow-usable way at the carrier level for commercial property appetite tracking. That’s the gap we’re building against.
If you’re curious, here is our Methodology and Data Dictionary.